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Brian Gallant 7:24 AM 9/15/17
MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
HURRICANE DECISION SUPPORT TEAM
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STATEMENT

Tropical Storm Jose - 9/14/2017, 9:00 PM Update

Situation
As of 5:00 PM today, Tropical Storm Jose was located 405 miles east-northeast of the Southeastern Bahamas and moving to the west-northwest at 8 MPH. This motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are at 70 MPH. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center of the storm up to 140 miles. TS Jose is expected to re-intensify and become a hurricane again this weekend, and remain as a hurricane at least into early next week.
Jose will make its closest approach to Southern New England late Tuesday into Wednesday.
While there is still a lot of uncertainty in Jose's track and forecast, it is likely that in the next 24-36 hours, Massachusetts will fall within the National Hurricane Center's 5-day so-called "cone of uncertainty. The cone represents the probable track of the center of the storm, and the width of the cone is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the cone. At this point, it appears that the actual storm track could be anywhere from a pass off of the coast of Southern New England, to direct landfall. If the storm tracks along the eastern edge of the cone of uncertainty, staying well offshore, impacts in Massachusetts could be similar to a strong nor'easter with the southeast areas of the state experiencing wind gusts of 50-60 mph. A track farther to the west with the hurricane making landfall in southern New England, or passing close by, would cause more significant impacts (stronger winds, more substantial beach erosion and coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, etc.)

Regardless of the track, the hurricane will cause high surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, and at least minor coastal flooding. How significant the impacts are will depend on the final track.
MEMA continues to monitor Jose's progress and forecasts and will issue Situational Awareness Statements at least daily so long as there is a risk of significant impacts from the storm. As confidence in Jose's track and intensity grows, MEMA will initiate pre-landfall planning, including conference calls with municipalities and stakeholders, if the storm may make landfall in southern New England or pass close enough by Massachusetts to cause significant impacts. ... See MoreSee Less

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